Game 16 – Minnesota Wild v. Dallas Stars

MINNESOTA v. DALLAS

Had to wear the classic North Stars jersey today.  (Never forget)

Here’s a look at the Wild leaders in advanced +/- (which essentially compares a player’s +/- to those of the team without them on the ice).  These haven’t been adjusted for quality of competition.

PLAYER	EV
Clutterbuck	+2.80
Scott	+2.11
Hnidy	+1.95
Zidlicky	+1.72
Brodziak	+1.47
——-	——-
Burns	-1.10
Havlat	-1.94
Schultz	-2.35
Boogaard	-7.68

Bold Prediction – Derek Boogaard, +1 tonight.

Inspiration

Random 10 –

• Over It – Dinosaur Jr. – Farm
• Flood – Tool – Undertow
• Make Your Own Bones – Nothingface – Violence
• If You Could Only See – Tonic – Lemon Parade
• Just – Radiohead – The Best Of
• Give Your Heart Away – Black Keys - Magic Potion
  
• Idiot Wind – Bob Dylan – Blood on the Tracks
• Sway – Heartless Bastards – The Mountain
• Sugar – System of a Down – (self-titled)
• Graveyard – Butthole Surfers – Locust Abortion Technician

The Triumphant Return of the Random 10 Story

The ball of paper ejects from the desk in the general direction of the wastebasket, but sails over it and joins the flood of rejected ideas threatening to overtake you from behind.  You should call for help, but you were adamant that you wanted to make your own bones on this one.  If you could only see the thoughts put to paper match with those in your head, that would be just perfect.  You prepare to give your heart away to another attempt, but instead you stare at the blank page like an idiot.  Wind rustles the paper mountain behind you, reminding you of past failures, trying to sway your resolve.  Instead inspiration strikes; the sweet sugar of a momentarily brilliant concept.  The rejection of your own ideas is an idea.  That ominous graveyard of crumpled thoughts behind you has a purpose, it’s all part of your process, culminating in the imagining of this new approach.

It’s perfect.

Game 15 – Minnesota Wild v. Vancouver Canucks

MINNESOTA v. VANCOUVER

Wow, it’s been a long time since the Wild have played. Also, don’t tell anyone, but it’s been quite a while since the Wild lost a game. We’ve reached the point where one would expect the new systems of the new coaching staff to be in place. I would say that the next few weeks are going to tell us more about what kind of a team this is going to turn out to be than the first month did. First up on that quest is a division rival that the Wild get to face without having to go up against their all-world goalie. With Luongo on the shelf, it seems like a tantalizing opportunity to pick up some divisional points (the Wild have 2 so far this season, but they’ve given away 5 in 3 games).

Bold Prediction - The Wild (14th best on PP, best on PK) score at least as many power play goals as Vancouver (6th best PP, 19th on PK).

Second Six (or so) Pack

A look back at the last two weeks and how the Wild dealt with all of the Staal brothers:

MINNESOTA 3 – COLORADO 2 (SO)

ST. LOUIS 3 – MINNESOTA 1

MINNESOTA 3 – CAROLINA 2 (OT)  (STAAL #1)

CHICAGO 3 – MINNESOTA 1

MINNESOTA 3 – NASHVILLE 4

MINNESOTA 3 – NEW YORK RANGERS 2 (STAAL #2)

(STAAL #3) PITTSBURGH 1 – MINNESOTA 2

	Record	Home	Away	Goal Diff.	EV-Time	EVGF	EVGA	EVGF/60	EVGA/60
Games 1-7	1-6-0	1-0-0	0-6-0	–10	310:29	7	21	1.35	4.04
Games 8-14	4-3-0	3-1-0	1-2-0	–1	349:12	10	11	1.72	1.89
TOTAL	5-9-0	4-1-0	1-8-0	–11	659:41	17	32	1.55	2.91

	PP Time	PPGF	SHGA	PPGF/60	SHGA/60
Games 1-7	61:36	8	1	7.79	0.97
Games 8-14	39:09	5	2	7.66	3.07
TOTAL	100:45	13	3	7.74	1.79
	SH Time	SHGF	PPGA	SHGF/60	PPGA/60
Games 1-7	51:03	0	3	0.00	3.53
Games 8-14	38:34	0	3	0.00	4.67
TOTAL	89:37	0	6	0.00	4.02

Again, 5-9 isn’t quite where the Wild want to be right now, but hey 4-3 is improvement!  The question is now how much has this slow start damaged the Wild’s chances at a respectable record at the end of this season?

Let’s look at what they have to do to reach some milestones with regards to wins.  I broke down the schedule into the remaining home and away games.  Since the lockout about 1 in every 4.5 games (22%) goes to overtime (charity point!), that is pretty much constant regardless of the ability of the team, so it’s safe to project about 15 more overtime games in the remaining 68 games.  Assuming a 50/50 chance at winning those, that’s 8 losses that will still garner the Wild a point (I’ll arbitrarily split them up 4 at home, 4 on the road).

There are 32 games remaining on the road, projecting the Wild’s current record, they will go 3-29.  Now that’s very bad and not very likely, but I think we’ve got some good evidence this isn’t a terribly good road team.  In the 4 previous seasons, only two teams won less than 10 games on the road all season, so a reasonable floor for the road win percentage would be .250.  That puts the likely worst record from here on in at 8-24.  Toss in the games already played, and the projected overtime losses and that’s a road record of 9-28-4.  I’m willing to bet the Wild do better than that, so here are some other possibilities.

Win %	Record in Remaining Gms	Total Pts on Road
.250	8-20-4	22
.333	11-17-4	28
.400	13-15-4	32
.500	16-12-4	38

Same drill for home games. This time 36 games remain on the schedule, and the current .800 winning percentage is unlikely to continue, but what is the most likely outcome?

Win %	Record in Remaining Gms	Total Pts at Home
.400	14-18-4	40
.500	18-14-4	48
.600	21-11-4	54
.667	24-8-4	60

Given those four outcomes for home and road games, the range of possible points for the Wild runs from#1 draft choice (~62 points) to pretty likely playoff team (~98 points) without doing anything too unbelievable (usually more than 10 teams finish with more than 55 points at home each season).

So, again, the start of the season could have definitely gone better for the Wild, but given some improvement in the coming months, a respectable season hasn’t been ruled out.  Just in case you remain unconvinced, I give you this.

That right there is Petr Sykora battling for a puck in the corner.  And if that is possible, anything is possible.

Game 14 – Minnesota Wild @ Pittsburgh Penguins

MINNESOTA @ PITTSBURGH 

Last night was the first game of the season that the Wild never trailed.  Can they build on that against the defending Cup champions?  It’s a tall order, but once again they’ll face an Eastern Conference team without one of their top scorers.  After missing Gaborik against the Rangers, now they will miss Malkin when they face the Penguins.

Bold Prediction – No one will mention the obvious trend of top scorers in the East being too frightened to play against the dominat Wild (2-0 v. the East).

Game 13 – Minnesota Wild v. New York Rangers

MINNESOTA v. NEW YORK 

Anyone remember the last time the Rangers visited Minnesota?  Here’s a refresher.  Maybe it would be a good thing if injury kept Gaborik out tonight.

Yes, the much-anticipated return of Gaborik to Minnesota was to happen tonight, but a knee injury may keep him on the sidelines.  It’s too bad if he doesn’t play, I’d like to see the reception he would get from the home crowd.  Personally, I would cheer him if I were in attendance, but I’m guessing other may disagree with me there.

Bold prediction – The number of jokes made about Gaborik missing this game due to injury will not be affected by whether or not he actually plays.

Random Ten – Now with Unnecessary Vulgarity

New Music

	Neil Young – Tonight’s the Night - Been feeling a little bit bleary lately (waking up before the sun will do that, can’t wait to gain an hour this weekend), so it seemed like a good time to try this album out.  Neil Young has never been a polished singer, but even after hearing from others how raw this album was, I guess it was still more than I expected.
	Fuck Buttons – Tarot Sport - Noise music, it’s actually pretty close to the minimalist orchestral kick I’ve been on recently.  The opening track ‘Surf Solar’ is my favorite, although the finale ‘Flight of the Feathered Serpent’ is also pretty cool.  Yeah, the band name is dumb, but that’s pretty easy to ignore.

Random 10

• Drunk with Power – Puscifer – V is for Vagina
• Consequence – Incubus – Make Yourself
• With Teeth – Nine Inch Nails – With Teeth
• The Greater Good – Nine Inch Nails – Year Zero
• Speedway – Counting Crows – This Desert Life
• My My, Hey Hey (Out of the Blue) – Neil Young – Rust Never Sleeps
• Fern – Zoë Keating – Natoma
• Space Mountain – Fuck Buttons – Tarot Sport
• A Bower Scene – The Decemberists – The Hazards of Love
• Pocket Symphony, B – Eighth Blackbird – Fred: Music of Frederic Rzewski

Even with more songs on my bigger iPod, it’s nice to know that I can still get back-to-back Nine Inch Nails.

Game 12 – Minnesota Wild v. Nashville Predators

MINNESOTA v. NASHVILLE 

 

Updating some stats I looked at a couple weeks ago:

Time spent behind – 378:46 (57%)

Time spent tied – 224:02 (33%)

Time spent with the lead – 67:15 (10%)

The Wild have trailed at some point in every game this season (they’ve had a lead in only 4 games).  Another little note, of those 67 minutes, the Wild have lead by 2 goals for only 2:12 (against San Jose).  That’s a ton of time where one mistake makes a whole lot of difference.  It’s just not fun to play that way, and I’m sure all involved are getting tired of it.

Bold Prediction – Final margin of victory tonight will be greater than or equal to two goals (not going to pick a team, but whoever wins will win by at least two).

NHL Teams With No Wins On the Road

Sigh.

Minnesota 0-8

Detroit 0-3-1

Tampa Bay 0-3-1

Carolina 0-4-2

NY Islanders 0-2-3

Game 11 – Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks

MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO 

Busy weekend, so this is going to be brief.  The Wild go once again in search of their first road win.  Chicago had been a good venue for the Wild in recent years (6-2 since the lockout), and since that has no bearing on this season, I’m sure everyone is optimistic.

Bold Prediction – Zidlicky will score a goal tonight. (thought he looked pretty good against Carolina Saturday)

Game 10 – Minnesota Wild v. Carolina Hurricanes

MINNESOTA v. CAROLINA

As of Friday morning, Carolina only has 2 wins this season.  Isn’t that a pathetic number?  Let’s all point and laugh at the Hurricanes!

Bold Prediction – The Northwest Division is 6-0-0 against the Eastern Conference (before Friday) and Carolina is winless against the West.  Wild win in regulation.

Game 9 – Minnesota Wild @ St. Louis Blues

MINNESOTA @ ST. LOUIS 

Sunderland (English Premier League Soccer, bear with me) defeated Liverpool last weekend thanks to a pretty bizarre goal. (Video)

Deflecting the ball off the balloon on the field is a pretty inventive way to score, and since I’ll be at the game tonight, I may just have to bring along some supplies in case we’re in need of a rally.

Bold Prediction – The last time I saw the Wild lose on the road in person … Well, I never have – they are 3-0 away from the Excel with me in attendance.  So my prediction is a shootout victory.

10 For the Road

Traveling to St. Louis today.  Spent the evening searching for driving music (I think Mrs. Mak will lose it if we listen to Farm one more time).

• Come to Daddy – Aphex Twin – Come to Daddy EP
• Milk It – Nirvana – From the Muddy Banks of the Wishkah
• Stupid Girl – Neil Young & Crazy Horse – Zuma
• Quotes – Dredg – The Pariah, the Parrot, the Delusion
• Dead Leaves and Dirty Ground – The White Stripes – White Blood Cells
• 02 Ghosts I – Nine Inch Nails – Ghosts
• Immigrant Song – Led Zeppelin – How the West Was Won
• Let it Loose – The Rolling Stones – Exile on Main Street
• Doesn’t Remind Me – Audioslave – Out of Exile
• Rocking Horse – Dead Weather – Horehound

[11:30 PM UPDATE - We have a decsision!]

Eighth Blackbird – Fred - I know next to nothing about this one.  Saw the group on the Minnesota Orchestra webpage, thought they sounded interesting.  We’ll see.  This is a collection of works composed by Frederick Rzewski.  ‘Coming Together’ based on a letter written by a prisoner during prison riots at Attica is the piece that really caught my eye.

Game 8 – Minnesota Wild v. Colorado Avalanche

MINNESOTA v. COLORADO 

Since the Wild last saw action, there have been some changes:

• They’re at home (only for one game, but hopefully home cooking makes a difference)
• Mikko Koivu has been named the permanent captain (finally)
• The Wild traded for Chuck Kobasew (Another forward couldn’t hurt)
• I have started going with the horizontal header for the game previews instead of vertical

Hopefully one or two of those things are enough to end the five game losing streak we’ve all been enjoying for the past week or two.

Bold Prediction – Wild win 5-0.  They’re due to string together a couple good periods, and I think they probably want a win more than I do.

The First Six (or so) Pack

I’ve been doing mostly game previews up to this point of the season, so let’s take a moment and (as much as we’d hate to do it) look back at the first seven games of the season.

COLUMBUS 2 – MINNESOTA 1

MINNESOTA 4 – ANAHEIM 3 (OT)

LOS ANGELES 6 – MINNESOTA 3

SAN JOSE 4 – MINNESOTA 2

ANAHEIM 3 – MINNESOTA 2

EDMONTON 5 – MINNESOTA 2

VANCOUVER 2 – MINNESOTA 1

Okay, first off, 1-6 is terrible.  Terrible.  A winless five-game road trip makes it really hard to pick anything positive out of the mess.  But I’ll put on my optimist hat and see what I can do.

Nicklas Backstrom -

2.82 GAA / .913 SV% (on 161 Shots)

Only four goalies in the NHL have a better SV% facing more shots (Anderson, Lundqvist, Ward, Fleury) and only two goalies have a higher SV% with higher Shots Faced per 60 minutes (Hiller – 33.8, Ward – 32.6, Backstrom – 32.5).

So he’s been very good.  Which makes it seem like the mild concerns about Backstrom being a ’system goalie’ were unfounded.  Unfortunately, he’s getting shelled.  But we’re being positive here, so let’s move on.

Eric Belanger -

Somehow Belanger is +1.  This is really impressive considering the Wild have scored only 7 even strength goals this season and only allowed 3 power play goals.  So, only seven goals could account for a ‘plus’ and 22 opponent’s goals could account for a ‘minus’.  Belanger has the only positive +/- on the roster (not surprising), and he’s been on the ice for four of those seven goals (and 4 power play goals).  He’s tied for the team lead with 8 points (2 G, 6 A) and he’s winning faceoffs (51.4%).  All in all a pretty solid stretch.

——–

That’s really all I got for positivity.  I’m sure there are plenty of other places where you can find what’s wrong with the Wild or who needs to step up their game, so I’ll leave that portion in others’ capable hands.